The Government of India has significantly strengthened early warning systems and weather forecasting capabilities for floods, cyclones and other extreme weather events through coordinated efforts by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, the India Meteorological Department and the Central Water Commission. The measures aim to improve forecast accuracy, enhance preparedness and reduce loss of life and property across vulnerable regions of the country.
The details were presented in the Lok Sabha by Minister of State Independent Charge for Earth Sciences Jitendra Singh while responding to parliamentary questions regarding early warning systems and improvements in weather forecasting.
District Level Early Warning Systems
The India Meteorological Department prepares and updates district level early warnings for heavy rainfall and cyclone related events four times every day. These forecasts are valid for up to seven days and are issued for all vulnerable districts across the country.
The department also generates real time warnings and graphical weather products that assist authorities and the public in monitoring weather conditions and preparing for possible extreme events.
These warnings are disseminated through multiple channels including the Common Alerting Protocol system, mobile applications, official websites, WhatsApp groups, social media platforms and other digital communication tools.
The automated siren based warning systems and local alert infrastructure are operated by State Disaster Management Authorities and State Emergency Operation Centres. The India Meteorological Department supports the Central Water Commission by supplying observed and forecast rainfall data required for flood monitoring and forecasting.
Central Water Commission Flood Forecast Network
Flood forecasting in India is handled by the Central Water Commission, which functions as the nodal agency responsible for flood forecasting and early flood warnings across the country.
The commission currently issues flood forecasts from a network of 350 forecasting stations. This network includes 150 inflow forecasting stations located at major dams and barrages and 200 level forecasting stations situated along major rivers.
The forecasting network has been developed in consultation with state governments and union territories to ensure coverage of major river basins and flood prone regions.
To improve lead time for evacuation and preparedness, the Central Water Commission has developed basin wise flood forecasting models based on rainfall runoff mathematical modelling. These models provide advance flood advisories up to seven days ahead in addition to short range forecasts with response times of up to twenty four hours.
Flood forecasting services are also integrated with the Common Alert Protocol dissemination system, allowing warnings to be shared instantly with State Disaster Management Authorities in different states and union territories.
C Flood Platform For Village Level Inundation Forecasts
To enhance flood risk monitoring, the government has launched a web based platform known as C Flood. The system provides advance flood inundation forecasts up to the village level and includes water level predictions and inundation maps.
The platform integrates flood inundation data derived from advanced two dimensional hydrodynamic modelling with information on flood extent and water depth. It functions as a unified inundation information system that combines modelling outputs from national and regional agencies.
In its initial phase the platform covers the Godavari, Tapi and Mahanadi river basins. The portal supports three languages including Hindi, English and Odia and provides inundation forecasts for the next two days.
The system categorises flood alerts into three levels based on inundation depth. Yellow alert indicates inundation below 0.5 metre. Orange alert indicates water levels below 1.5 metres while red alert indicates inundation exceeding 1.5 metres.
The forecasting models use satellite based datasets and ground based hydrological observations to improve prediction accuracy.
Flood Watch India Mobile Application
The Central Water Commission has also developed the Flood Watch India mobile application to provide real time flood related information.
The application was launched on 17 August 2023 and currently provides flood forecasts for 200 stations and flood monitoring data for an additional 500 stations across the country. It also provides information on reservoir storage levels for 150 major reservoirs.
The application is designed to support disaster management authorities at central, state and district levels as well as the general public by providing timely alerts and information about flood conditions.
Dissemination Of Cyclone Warnings
For cyclone related warnings, the India Meteorological Department uses an extensive communication network to ensure that information reaches disaster management authorities, media organisations and the general public.
Cyclone warnings are disseminated through national and state level meteorological websites as well as a dedicated website for tropical cyclone monitoring. Alerts are also issued through the Common Alert Protocol, SMS notifications to registered users, mobile applications and social media platforms including Facebook, X and WhatsApp.
Regular press releases and media briefings are conducted at both national and state levels during cyclone seasons.
Warnings for fishermen are broadcast through All India Radio and also delivered via SMS through the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services network. For fishermen operating in deep sea areas warnings are transmitted through the Navigation with Indian Constellation satellite communication system.
Ahead of cyclone seasons the India Meteorological Department conducts pre cyclone preparedness meetings with disaster management officials at both central and state levels. During severe weather events the Director General of the India Meteorological Department personally briefs disaster management authorities to ensure coordinated response and preparedness.
Role Of State Disaster Management Authorities
State Disaster Management Authorities and State Emergency Operation Centres are responsible for disseminating warnings to vulnerable communities through local disaster communication networks.
These authorities use siren systems, public address systems, community networks and local communication channels to ensure warnings reach residents in coastal and flood prone areas.
Officials noted that further improvements in mobile connectivity and digital communication infrastructure at the local level would help strengthen last mile dissemination of warnings.
Additional efforts are also required to install more automated siren systems, improve satellite communication systems for fishermen and increase public awareness regarding disaster preparedness.
To support these activities financial resources are available to state governments through the State Disaster Response Fund and the State Disaster Mitigation Fund.
In cases where states require additional assistance the central government considers requests under the National Disaster Response Fund and the National Disaster Mitigation Fund according to established guidelines.
Improvements In Weather Forecasting Accuracy
India has recorded significant improvements in weather forecasting accuracy in recent years, particularly in predicting cyclones, heavy rainfall, thunderstorms and heat waves.
According to data presented in Parliament, the annual average cyclone track forecast errors in 2025 were about 80 kilometres for twenty four hour forecasts, 120 kilometres for forty eight hour forecasts and 204 kilometres for seventy two hour forecasts.
Intensity forecast accuracy has improved significantly. The annual average absolute error in cyclone intensity forecasting during 2025 was 3.1 knots for twenty four hour forecasts, 2.7 knots for forty eight hour forecasts and 3.9 knots for seventy two hour forecasts. These figures represent substantial improvements compared with the previous five year averages of 5.9, 8.3 and 9.8 knots respectively.
Improvements In Monsoon And Rainfall Forecasts
The India Meteorological Department follows a seamless forecasting strategy for monsoon rainfall. Under this system weather forecasts are issued across multiple time scales.
Nowcasting provides forecasts up to six hours ahead for severe weather events across districts and at nearly 1200 observation stations.
Short to medium range forecasts cover up to seven days for cities, districts, blocks and meteorological subdivisions. Extended range forecasts cover up to four weeks while seasonal and monthly long range forecasts are issued for the entire country and for homogeneous climatic regions.
The seasonal forecast for the southwest monsoon issued in April 2025 predicted rainfall at 105 percent of the long period average. The actual rainfall recorded for the season was 108 percent of the long period average, which fell within the predicted range.
Multi Model Ensemble Forecasting System
The India Meteorological Department adopted a new forecasting strategy in 2021 based on the Multi Model Ensemble approach.
This system integrates coupled global climate models from several international climate prediction centres along with the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System developed by India.
Verification results for the period from 2021 to 2025 indicate that the monsoon rainfall forecasts issued under this system have been consistently accurate.
Improvements In Heatwave And Thunderstorm Forecasting
Heatwave forecasting has also improved significantly. During the summer season of 2025 the probability of detection for heatwave forecasts issued one day in advance reached 98 percent.
Forecast skill decreases with longer lead times but remains substantial, with three day advance forecasts achieving a detection rate of 75 percent.
Thunderstorm forecasting accuracy has also improved. Three hourly thunderstorm nowcasting during the 2025 storm season achieved a probability of detection of 0.92 compared with 0.83 in 2022.
Expansion Of Weather Monitoring Infrastructure
The expansion of meteorological infrastructure has played a major role in improving forecasting accuracy.
At present India has 48 Doppler Weather Radars installed and operational across the country. These radars enable better monitoring of severe weather events including thunderstorms, lightning, cloudbursts, heat waves and cyclones.
The India Meteorological Department is working with research institutions across the country to strengthen monitoring systems and develop urban climate monitoring platforms.
Impact On Disaster Risk Reduction
Improved early warning systems have contributed significantly to reducing disaster related losses and improving preparedness among communities.
District level weather forecasts and agrometeorological advisories help farmers make informed decisions about sowing, irrigation, fertiliser use and harvesting. This has reduced crop losses and improved agricultural productivity.
Timely cyclone warnings and ocean condition forecasts have enhanced safety for fishermen by allowing them to avoid dangerous sea conditions.
Impact based forecasting also helps disaster management authorities plan evacuation operations and emergency response measures in advance.
Heatwave Preparedness And Climate Risk Management
To address heatwave risks the National Disaster Management Authority has implemented Heat Action Plans in twenty three states that are vulnerable to extreme heat conditions.
Seasonal outlooks and extended range temperature forecasts are issued to help authorities plan heatwave response strategies. These include adjusting working hours, ensuring water supply and protecting vulnerable populations.
The India Meteorological Department has also developed a district wise heatwave vulnerability atlas to assist state governments and disaster management agencies in identifying high risk areas.
Climate Hazard Atlas And Digital Forecast Services
The India Meteorological Department has developed a web based Climate Hazard and Vulnerability Atlas covering thirteen major meteorological hazards that cause economic losses and damage to life and property.
The atlas enables state governments and disaster management agencies to identify hotspots of climate risk and plan resilient infrastructure development.
Weather forecasts and warnings are disseminated through several mobile applications including the MAUSAM application for general weather forecasts, the MEGHDOOT application for agricultural advisory services, the DAMINI application for lightning alerts developed by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and the UMANG application developed by the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology.
Panchayat Level Weather Forecasting
To improve last mile connectivity of weather services, the India Meteorological Department in collaboration with the Ministry of Panchayati Raj has launched a system for Gram Panchayat level weather forecasting.
The forecasts are accessible through digital platforms such as e Gramswaraj, the Meri Panchayat mobile application, the e Manchitra platform and the Mausamgram portal developed by the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
The system provides forecasts at the panchayat level covering parameters such as temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind speed and cloud conditions. These forecasts help farmers make informed decisions regarding sowing, irrigation and harvesting.
Weather information is also disseminated through grassroots networks such as Pashu Sakhis and Krishi Sakhis under the Ministries of Agriculture and Rural Development.
Stakeholder Consultation And Future Improvements
The India Meteorological Department regularly conducts state level stakeholder consultation workshops involving government departments and sectors such as agriculture, water resources, energy, disaster management, aviation, transport and urban planning.
These consultations help identify operational gaps and emerging needs and guide improvements in weather and climate services.
Officials said the continued modernization of forecasting infrastructure, expansion of observation networks and integration of digital dissemination systems are expected to further strengthen India’s early warning capabilities and reduce disaster risks in vulnerable regions.
